The Most Important Investment Decision You’ll Ever Make

“When most people think about investing, they’re thinking about stuff that doesn’t really matter. They’re caught up in the minutiae: What fund should I own? How fast did the iPhone 7 sell out (and are people really going to be okay with no headphone jack)? What sector is going to take off this fall? But Read more about The Most Important Investment Decision You’ll Ever Make[…]

Return Expectations

The Shiller PE (aka “CAPE”) is one of very few metrics that appears to have some predictive value. The CAPE ratio for the U.S. Market is currently at about 29, well above its historical average of ~ 16.1, which suggests that future domestic stock market returns are likely to be very muted.

The Nature of Robo-Advisors’ Portfolios

A very interesting article/study by Stephen Huxley and John Kim, which concludes: “The evidence suggests that the portfolios they recommend for “moderate” investors are neither significantly better nor worse than the S&P 500 Index. However, there is a common theme that all the robos share in terms of performance – their short-term nature. In terms Read more about The Nature of Robo-Advisors’ Portfolios[…]

Bogle’s “Folly” Turns 40!

40 years ago, John Bogle introduced the first index fund, to the disdain of Wall Street and its agents. 40 years later, the index fund has become the most successful investment vehicle in history, proving Samuelson’s 1974 observation that: “A respect for evidence compels me to incline toward the hypothesis that most portfolio managers should Read more about Bogle’s “Folly” Turns 40![…]