Return Expectations

The Shiller PE (aka “CAPE”) is one of very few metrics that appears to have some predictive value. The CAPE ratio for the U.S. Market is currently at about 29, well above its historical average of ~ 16.1, which suggests that future domestic stock market returns are likely to be very muted. Ben Carlson makes the case here.

The Nature of Robo-Advisors’ Portfolios

A very interesting article/study by Stephen Huxley and John Kim, which concludes: “The evidence suggests that the portfolios they recommend for “moderate” investors are neither significantly better nor worse than the S&P 500 Index. However, there is a common theme that all the robos share in terms of performance – their short-term nature. In terms of allocations among asset classes, their portfolios correlate most strongly with equity portfolios designed for short-term, one- to three-year holding periods rather than portfolios designed for longer time horizons.” Read the entire article here >>

5 Good Dividend ETFs

Charles Sizemore sums up some of the best Dividend ETF offerings. Read the full article here >>

Tactical Funds Fail (again) to Beat a Passive Portfolio

Luke Delorme updates some research from 2012 and finds that Tactical funds consistently under-performed a ‘simple’ Vanguard index fund.  Read the full article here >>

Bogle’s “Folly” Turns 40!

40 years ago, John Bogle introduced the first index fund, to the disdain of Wall Street and its agents. 40 years later, the index fund has become the most successful investment vehicle in history, proving Samuelson’s 1974 observation that: “A respect for evidence compels me to incline toward the hypothesis that most portfolio managers should go out of business – take up plumbing, teach Greek, or help produce the annual GNP by serving as corporate executives.” Read the entire article here >>

Patience. Patience. Patience.

Great article by John Rekenthaler demonstrating a common error made by many investors – amateurs and pros alike. Read the full article here >>