“For active management to work, a manager doesn’t just need to be able to predict what will happen next, they need to know if it will be better or worse than what the market expected. Active management is like betting on sports – you can’t just pick who’s going to win, you need to be Read more about Occam’s Razor – One of the Most Successful Active Managers of all Time Shows Why Active Management Doesn’t Work[…]
“When most people think about investing, they’re thinking about stuff that doesn’t really matter. They’re caught up in the minutiae: What fund should I own? How fast did the iPhone 7 sell out (and are people really going to be okay with no headphone jack)? What sector is going to take off this fall? But Read more about The Most Important Investment Decision You’ll Ever Make[…]
“Rational strategies to spend from a volatile portfolio suggest that we spend more when our portfolio grows in proportion to our spending and life expectancy and demand that we spend less when it shrinks.”
This is a rather sobering view of the state of America’s “Retirement Readiness” by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics. One-in-three Americans have absolutely $0 in retirement savings, and 87% of us have less than $300,000.
The Shiller PE (aka “CAPE”) is one of very few metrics that appears to have some predictive value. The CAPE ratio for the U.S. Market is currently at about 29, well above its historical average of ~ 16.1, which suggests that future domestic stock market returns are likely to be very muted.
A very interesting article/study by Stephen Huxley and John Kim, which concludes: “The evidence suggests that the portfolios they recommend for “moderate” investors are neither significantly better nor worse than the S&P 500 Index. However, there is a common theme that all the robos share in terms of performance – their short-term nature. In terms Read more about The Nature of Robo-Advisors’ Portfolios[…]